When the market sells off in a seeming “panic mode” state, as it did between July 31 to August 5, swing trading the recovery on an intraday basis can be tricky. 

 

Often, you have to look at the intraday price action to get a clear sense as to when a reversal might occur–”might” being the operative term.

 

If you’re fundamentally bullish, then you might anticipate trading the reversal with an eye toward the peak as a potential target. If you’re only somewhat fundamentally bullish, you might think of targeting a lower resistance area. You may even hold multiple positions targeting both or beyond.

 

Either way, your swing trading sensibilities will likely have you watching the higher lows supporting the breakout, as any violation of these levels might, from a short-term perspective, render a swing breakout scenario somewhat invalid.

 

Anticipating Potential Support

It helps to anticipate likely support by zooming out to a larger time frame, and judging from the strong reversal on August 6, many of the more technical traders had anticipated this general level based on the previous support levels going back to March of this year.

dow1-300x140 Swing Trading the Dow’s Intraday Reversal

Support in March [1], May [2], and early in June [3] may have supported the thesis that the low on August 6 as shown at [4] might have been anticipated, but to get a clearer picture, we need to take a look at the intraday price action to see if such a low could have been determined.

 

dow2-300x142 Swing Trading the Dow’s Intraday Reversal

Using Basic Trend Rules to Anticipate a Breakout

 

On August 5, we see a low [A] followed by a higher low at [B]. Although this doesn’t say much yet, it at least satisfies part of the basic criteria for a potential reversal. Now we see a breakout at [C]. A higher high? Sort of, but it really depends on whether the subsequent price action continues to form a higher low and higher high. At the time of writing price looks like it might be establishing a lower low, but it’s still too early. Any breakout point can serve as a potential long entry point. But the big question is whether the price will be able to maintain its momentum, staying above the consecutive swing lows at [A] and [B] while breaking above its current swing highs.

 

UPDATE: The Dow did not continue its upward momentum and is currently testing support. This means that any trader looking to go long will have to seek another reversal point.

 

Although markets can be technically traded, fundamental factors ultimately drive the markets. So for now, it’s a wait and see. But as far as swing  trade setups go, particularly with regard to trading a potential “correction,” the context is quite straightforward and clear.

 

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