1987 All Over Again? Here’s the Data

As tempting as it is to call a bottom for the current flush in US equities, we will hold off for one reason, even if it is an outlier probability: markets crash when they are already oversold. That might seem counterintuitive, but consider the following daily return series around the October 1987 crash for the S&P 500 Read more


The Inevitable Failure of Public Pensions

State-run pensions are sitting on a time bomb. Read more


“Live To Fight Another Day” – One Hedge Fund Trader Explains What Is Driving The Collapse

Earlier today we ran into a former colleague who now serves as a risk management consultant to the hedge fund industry. I can’t tell you much about this person for obvious reasons, except to say that they fit the classic definition of someone you should listen to: they talk to the right people. And, even more importantly, the right people pay our gal/guy for their views. Read more


There’s a major reason for this stock sell-off: The dollar

Executives are talking about challenges to their business they didn’t face just a few months ago. One of the biggest, they said, is the rising U.S. dollar. A widening gulf between the U.S. dollar and several foreign currencies is weighing on sentiment for U.S. companies trying to sell their goods overseas. Read more


When Rich Families Hate Capitalism

People who are born as the wealthy children of successful business people are often very confused about how economic prosperity is created. Read more


Middle class is disappearing in California as wealth gap grows

California made major news this month, reclaiming a valuable economic marker and surpassing Britain as the fifth largest economy in the world. Its growth after the recession has accelerated under President Trump and even turned a modest surplus. However, the Golden State remains one of the most unequal in the nation. It has both billions of dollars in Silicon Valley and rampant homelessness. Read more


The U.S. Economy Is Doing Great. Why Isn’t Housing?

The housing market is one of the few sectors of the U.S. economy that isn’t sharing in the recent pickup in growth. Purchases are slowing down, builders aren’t building so much, and some people are even reluctant to post their properties for sale. Read more


U.S. GDP Grows Above-Forecast 3.5% on Consumers, Inventories

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter as consumers opened their wallets, businesses restocked inventories and governments boosted spending, marking the strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2014. Read more


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