Numbers have a fascinating power. No, it’s not the numbers themselves. And no, it’s not the units that the numbers explicitly represent (a million dollars versus, say, a million grains of sand).

The power of numbers come from what they implicitly stand for: a kind of logic.

Logic is inherently “authoritative.” Generally, you wouldn’t want to go against it.

But there are many different “logics,” and in order for the numbers to be “true,” you must believe in that particular logic.

You must have a “bias” toward that belief system. And this is where people tend to get fooled.

The economic numbers we’ve been seeing don’t “lie,” but their underlying logic might have been switched (a sleight-of-hand trick).

Since Donald Trump entered the White House, our economic numbers have improved. This is true. After all, the numbers don’t lie.

The numbers paint the picture that we’re on our way to a Golden Age. And if the numbers support that view, what legitimate argument can you have against it?

But here’s the question: are we using the appropriate calculations to assess our current situation; in other words, are we using the “right” numbers, or the same numbers that we’ve used in the past?

First, kudos to Trump for everything he’s done, but if we were to Make America Great Again, then “Again” in our case implies using a similar means of measuring how were once great “Before.”

So, is everything just rosy? John Williams, the economist of shadowstats.com, begs to differ.

He’s been tracking our economic numbers and comparing them with the calculations we’ve been using in the past.

And the numbers don’t look very pretty at all. In fact, according to Williams, they’re much worse than most think.

Let’s hear him out, starting with the unemployment rate:

Our unemployment rate is supposedly at 3.8 percent—the lowest in nearly 50 years.

That’s what we’re being told.

But here’s the truth. According to Williams, if you run the numbers “honestly,” that is, not moving people from the “officially unemployed” category to the “not in the labor force” category, then you will come up with a more accurate figure.

Our real unemployment rate is 21.5%.

This accounts for 102 million Americans of working age who do not have a job.

This unemployment rate is higher than it was during the last recession.

Our current inflation rate YOY is 1.9%.

That’s a good number!

As long as the number stays this low, why should you care about rising costs?

According to Williams, the way we’ve been calculating inflation differs from decades past.

He argues that US statistical agencies have overestimated GDP, underestimating the inflation deflator used in the calculations.

Why did they do this?

It allows the government to manipulate the cost of living adjustments to pay pensioners less than what they were promised.

So, what is our real inflation rate?

  • Using 1990 (Bush era) calculations, our inflation rate today would be at 6%!
  • Using 1980 (Carter era) calculations, our inflation rate today would be at 10%?

 

Forget what our current 1.9% number says…based on your own lived experience, based on the rising costs that you experience every day…don’t these figures seem more accurate to you?

 


The risk of loss in the trading of stocks, options, futures, foreign exchanges, foreign equities, and bonds can be substantial and is not suitable for all investors. Trading on margin or the use of leverage is not suitable for all investors and losses exceeding your initial deposit is possible. Supporting documentation is available upon request. Trading futures, options on futures, and foreign exchanges involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources and only risk capital should be used. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The lower the margin used the higher the leverage and therefore increases your risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.